Two teams each had roughly a dozen shots in the match I watched, yet one goalkeeper had a pretty quiet night and the other made several big saves. I keep seeing expected goals mentioned to explain that. What should I actually look at? When two teams have similar shot totals, how can expected goals help explain which side created the better chances?

Shot totals ignore where the chances come from. A tap-in from six yards and a hopeful effort from thirty yards both count as one shot, but they clearly aren't equal. Expected goals attempts to describe that difference using chance characteristics. I use it as a guide alongside the footage, not a perfect verdict on who played better. There's also 1xbet Republic of Ireland if you were looking for the site reference; my comments above are just about the sport itself.