Ung Dung Chi So Ban Thang Ky Vong (xG) Vao Soi Keo – Cong Cu Tach Biet Giua May Rui Va Dang Cap Thuc Su

1. Chi so ban thang ky vong (Expected Goals - xG) la gi?

Trong ky nguyen bong da so hoa, viec danh gia mot doi bong chi dua vao ty so cuoi cung cua tran dau hoac so lan sut bong (Shots) da tro nen qua lac hau. Mot doi bong co the thang tran 1-0 nho mot cu sut xa may man dap chan hau ve doi huong doi quy dao, trong khi doi thu cua ho sut trung cot doc ba lan. De giai quyet su sai lech nay, chi so ban thang ky vong (Expected Goals – viet tat la xG) ra doi va tro thanh bo nao trong he thong phan tich du lieu cua keo nha cai.

xG la mot chi so thong ke do luong chat luong cua mot co hoi dut diem. Moi cu sut cua cau thu se duoc thuat toan may tinh gan cho mot gia tri nam trong khoang tu 0.00 den 1.00 xG, dua tren hang van du lieu tuong tu trong lich su: goc sut, khoang cach den khung thanh, luc luong hau ve doi phuong dang che chan, va cu sut do duoc thuc hien bang chan hay bang dau. Mot qua phat den (Penalty) mac dinh co gia tri la 0.76 xG.

2. Cach boc tach su chenh lech xG de tim ra "Keo thom" tai BONGDATA

Khi phan tich bang du lieu xG chuyen sau tai BONGDATA, ban can dac biet chu y den hien tuong lech pha giua ban thang thuc te va chi so xG:

Khai niem Doi bong "May man thai qua" (Overperforming)

Neu mot doi bong ghi duoc toi 15 ban thang trong 5 vong dau gan nhat, nhung tong chi so xG tich luy cua ho chi la 6.5 xG. Dieu nay chung to hang cong cua ho dang dat hieu suat dut diem may man mot cach phi thuc te, hoac cac thu mon doi phuong da tu sai lam bieu khong ban thang. Theo quy luat toan hoc, xu huong nay som muon cung se bi keo ve muc can bang (Regression to the mean). O cac vong dau tiep theo, khi van may bien mat, doi bong nay rat de bi tit ngoi va gay keo chau A khi chap sau.

Khai niem Doi bong "Den dui tot cung" (Underperforming)

Nguoc lai, neu mot cau lac bo tao ra vo so co hoi ngon an, don ep doi thu lien tuc va co tong chi so xG len toi 10.0 xG trong 4 tran, nhung thuc te ho chi ghi duoc von ven 2 ban thang (do tien dao vo duyen hoac thu mon doi phuong choi qua xuat than). Day chinh la mot "mo vang" an giau. Loi choi cua ho dang van hanh cuc tot, va chi can cac tien dao giai toa duoc ap luc tam ly, doi bong nay se bung no manh me o cac tran dau toi. Hay tu tin dat cua vao ho khi nha cai dua ra muc keo de tho.

3. Tam quan trong cua chi so xGA (Expected Goals Against)

Ben canh mat tran tan cong, chi so ban thang ky vong bi thung luoi (xGA) giup ban danh gia chinh xac suc manh thuc su cua mot he thong phong ngu. Mot doi bong giu sach luoi 3 tran lien tiep chua chac da co hang thu tot neu chi so xGA cua ho len toi 2.5 moi tran (tuc la thu mon cua ho da phai bay luon cuu thua xuat than). Hay dung xGA tai BONGDATA lam thuoc do chuan muc de dua ra nhung quyet dinh dat cuoc Tai Xiu chinh xac nhat.

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