keonhacai luon la mot linh vuc hap dan, thu hut hang trieu nguoi tham gia voi loi hua ve phan thuong lon. Tuy nhien, dang sau nhung con so va ty le cuoc la mot yeu to thuong bi bo qua nhung lai vo cung quan trong: tam ly nguoi choi. Viec hieu ro va quan ly trang thai tam ly cua ban than khong chi giup ban dua ra quyet dinh sang suot hon ma con la nen tang vung chac cho su thanh cong lau dai trong the gioi ca cuoc.



Con Loc Cam Xuc: Tham Vong va So Hai



Ca cuoc la mot tro choi cua nhung cam xuc manh me. Khi bat dau, long tham (tham vong chien thang) thuong la dong luc chinh. Cam giac phan khich khi dat cuoc va hy vong vao mot ket qua co loi co the lam lu mo kha nang phan tich khach quan.



Mot khi thang lon, nguoi choi de roi vao bay "qua tu tin" (overconfidence bias). Ho bat dau tin rang minh co mot “chien luoc bi mat” hay kha nang du doan sieu pham, dan den viec tang quy mo cuoc mot cach lieu linh. Day la luc rui ro tang len dang ke.



Nguoc lai, khi thua lien tiep, noi so hai va su buc boi (tilt) xuat hien. Ap luc phai go gac nhanh chong day nguoi choi vao nhung quyet dinh voi vang, thuong la dat cuoc vao nhung tran dau khong ro rang hoac chap nhan ty le rui ro cao hon muc cho phep. Nam bat duoc khi nao cam xuc dang chi phoi hanh vi la buoc dau tien de kiem soat cuoc choi.



Thien Kien Xac Nhan: Khi Chung Ta Chi Nhin Thay Dieu Muon Thay



Mot trong nhung thien kien nhan thuc pho bien nhat trong ca cuoc la "thien kien xac nhan" (confirmation bias). Dieu nay xay ra khi nguoi choi chi tim kiem, dien giai va ghi nho nhung thong tin xac nhan cho niem tin hoac du doan ban dau cua ho, dong thoi bo qua hoac danh gia thap cac bang chung nguoc lai.



Vi du, neu ban tin tuong vao mot doi bong nhat dinh, ban se de dang chu y den cac bai phan tich ung ho doi do va bo qua nhung thong ke cho thay phong do gan day cua ho dang sa sut. Trong ca cuoc the thao, viec nay cuc ky nguy hiem vi ket qua thuong phu thuoc vao nhieu bien so khach quan, khong chi la cam tinh ca nhan. De chong lai thien kien nay, hay chu dong tim kiem cac nguon thong tin trai chieu va danh gia chung mot cach cong bang.



Quan Ly Von va Ky Luat Tin chuyen nhuong bong da moi nhat: Suc Manh Cua Su Kien Dinh



Tam ly khong chi lien quan den cam xuc nhat thoi ma con lien quan den ky luat dai han. Nhung nguoi choi ca cuoc thanh cong hiem khi dua vao may man; ho dua vao mot he thong quan ly von (bankroll management) nghiem ngat.



Ky luat trong viec tuan thu quy tac dat cuoc (vi du: chi cuoc 1-3% tong von cho moi tran) chinh la rao can tam ly vung chac nhat chong lai su hung phan khi thang va su hoang loan khi thua. Khi ban da co mot ke hoach ro rang, nhung bien dong nho cua thi truong se it co kha nang lam lung lay quyet dinh cua ban. Ky luat chinh la su binh tinh duoc the hien qua hanh dong cu the.



Su Khac Biet Giua Dat Cuoc va Dau Tu



Nhieu nguoi nham lan ca cuoc voi dau tu. Mac du ca hai deu lien quan den phan tich va rui ro, nhung tam ly dang sau chung khac biet sau sac. Dau tu thuong doi hoi tam nhin dai han, su kien nhan cuc do va kha nang chiu dung nhung dot suy thoai keo dai.



Ca cuoc, du co the ap dung cac nguyen tac phan tich gia tri (value betting), van mang tinh chat ngan han va bien dong cao hon. Nguoi choi can chap nhan su khong chac chan va khong co gang ap dat tam ly "giu lau" nhu trong thi truong chung khoan. Hay coi moi lan dat cuoc la mot giao dich doc lap, duoc danh gia dua tren thong tin hien tai va xac suat, chu khong phai dua tren khoan tien da mat truoc do.



Khi Nao Can Tam Dung? Nhan Biet Dau Hieu Canh Bao



Mot phan thiet yeu cua tam ly ca cuoc lanh manh la kha nang tu nhan thuc ve gioi han cua ban than. Khi nao thi nen dung day khoi ban choi?



Choi vi cam xuc: Ban dat cuoc khong phai vi phan tich ma vi muon cam thay tot hon sau khi thua, hoac de thoa man con them khat hanh dong.

Vuot qua ngan sach: Ban bat dau su dung tien khong danh cho giai tri.

* Mat tap trung: Cac quyet dinh cua ban tro nen ngau nhien va khong theo bat ky logic nao.



Dung lai khong phai la that bai, ma la mot hanh dong chien luoc de bao ve tai chinh va suc khoe tinh than. Viec tam nghi giup ban “lam moi” he thong cam xuc, nhin nhan lai chien luoc mot cach khach quan hon truoc khi quay lai voi cai dau lanh.



Tom lai, viec nam vung cac nguyen tac tam ly la yeu to quyet dinh giua nguoi choi ca cuoc giai tri va nguoi choi co loi nhuan ben vung. Chien thang thuc su khong chi do bang so tien thang duoc, ma con bang kha nang ban giu duoc su diem tinh va ky luat truoc moi bien dong cua cuoc choi. Hay lam chu tam ly cua minh, va ban se lam chu duoc cuoc choi.